Khuôn khổ lạm phát mục tiêu có phù hợp với Việt Nam hay không?
Monetary policy is one of the most crucial macroeconomic policies in an economy in general and in Vietnam in particular. Considering the low effectiveness of monetary policy in Vietnam, many economists think that inflation targeting (I.T) is a best choice for the future. The dissertation takes a comprehensive look at the I.T framework in theoretical and empirical terms, the conditions as well as the global experiences in industrial and developing countries. In theory, the I.T model does not mention other determinants of inflation such as real shocks, exchange rate movements and fiscal roots. It is surprising that although I.T is applied nearly everywhere but not all countries are successful and I.T is often not the key determinant of success. Other factors are also important, such as fiscal descipline, the economic structure, financial system strength, central bank indepedence and political support for the inflation target.
The disseration also tests the conditions of Vietnam using some prerequisites for I.T suggested by the IMF and finds that Vietnam is not suitable for this framework because the country’s economic characteristics include a weak financial system and a lack of central bank indepedence. Although the experience in some successful countries like Chile and South Korea show that those conditions are not wholly met in these countries, at least Chile and South Korea had good fiscal discipline and central bank independence. In Vietnam, fiscal dominance exists with continuous fiscal deficits. Thus, to improve the prevailing monetary policy framework, I.T may not be the best choice for Vietnam. REER targeting is an alternative but it is also problematic. Vietnam is a highly open economy with a high pass-through effect and dollarization. The dissertation recommends that at first Vietnam should improve institutional conditions for monetary policy and strengthen financial markets, and at the same time restructure the economy and impose fiscal discipline on the government. Then choosing I.T or REER targeting or another monetary framework will depend on political considerations and the desired balance between growth and price stability.